Edible Oil market scenario

Last Updated : January 06, 2012 17:00

Global edible oil markets witnessed a choppy week amidst high volatility as prices touched multi month highs led by a slew of encouraging fundamentals. In the first place, existing weather concerns assumed larger significance in the wake of persistent of lack of rains in Brazil and Argentina. Eventually, this led to a large scale downward revision of the soy crop sizes which steered the upward momentum. Technical indicators also turned conducive boosting trader confidence leading to sharp gains in CME soy complex which opened mid week after long New Year holidays. A slight weakening of the USD index and renewed geo political tensions surrounding Iran kept prompted energy counters to stay on an upbeat, thereby providing lateral support for the oil complex as well.

SE Asian and Chinese oilseed markets also mimed US and South American sentiments while capitalizing on its own weather hampered supply tightness. Malaysia and Indonesia have been witnessing weather discrepancies in line with the ongoing La Nina phenomenon. Factors such as improving export demand which retreated from the double digit decline during early December, ability of CPO prices to hold above MYR3,100 emerged as additional support. Nevertheless, prices succumbed to a mild dose of profit taking marking a cautious approach ahead of next week?s supply demand estimates from the USDA and the MPOB.

Domestic prices extended their rally as soy oil prices touched historic highs and Mustard Seed and soybean marched ahead stealthily. Pre existing unfavorable weather conditions along with building consensus on the reduced mustard seed crop kept the price volatility high throughout the week. The advance was trimmed during the later half the week as profit booking emerged which cooled off the sentiment.

The recent developments in the edible oil markets are reminiscent of the purely explosive weather market, which is a seasonal effect though. There has been a significant shift in the market fundamentals
from ?dearth of demand? to ?supply squeeze? in the past one month. The scenario has so changed that, private crop rating agencies have begun slashing their soy crop estimates for Argentina and Brazil by over 5m tons on yoy basis. With more than a month for the new crop to be harvested, such sizeable crop cuts needs to be watched with caution.

That is to say, SA is gearing up for a lower final crop size which should most likely be confirmed by the USDA report scheduled for release on Jan 12th. This brings us to a scenario wherein US weekly exports swelled to its highest level of more than 1.07mn tons, which is a 3 week high indicating buyers are preempting any kind of panic purchases (at higher prices) in case South America sees a bitter harvest. Therefore, a temporary shift is happening that is titled more towards supply threats rather than ?real? demand. It may be noted that, US exports still lags behind last year, but the only hope is whether it is able to divert buyer?s attention from SA to its home grown soy crop which is in already flooded in the market. At the palm front, proportionally higher production cuts vis-?-vis exports that is keeping the bullish momentum alive in BMD futures.

Domestic markets are already on a corrective mode following a month long exorbitant gains. Prices could take a pause before setting the due course of the future trend. Furthermore, with rupee hovering above 52.5 vs the US dollar and with fair chances for turning stronger, edible oil price premiums seem to be shelved for the short term BMD CPO futures extended the rally and found stiff resistance at MYR3,245 last week. Last week?s price formation has resulted in achieving the target (falling wedge) and are exhibiting mixed sentiments. The inability of the prices to break MYR3,245 after repeated attempts shows the possibility for initial weakness within the medium term positive tone. MYR3,245-3,270 (Nov?11 high) acts as the resistance, while support rests at MYR3,165-3,130 Prices achieved the target of 53.2-53.4cents for the double bottom formation with its low at 48.3cents and neckline at 50.5cents. Following this, prices are moving in a channel with its support at 51.75cents. Prices caved in briefly below this level and a test of 51.4cents cannot be ruled in the near term. Prices are expected to hold the support of 51.4 and move within towards 51-53.5cents in the short run. A close above 53.4cents shall ignite a medium term rally with a potential target of 58.5cents

MCX CPO prices achieved the target of 555-560 for the double bottom formation last week and retreated lower. Prices appear to have taken intermediate support near Rs543. Major support zone rests at Rs540-535, prices could drift into this zone and then move higher in the short run. Te overall trend remains mixed within the last 2 weeks price range.

NCDEX soy oil prices continued to rewrite the highs marking a high of Rs767 last week. Subsequently,
prices retraced sharply lower as expected inline with the overbought technical picture. Prices are poised to test the 23.6% retracement level as well as the MA support of Rs730 (~730-735) in the short run. Major support exists at the 38.2% level of Rs716, while resistance is seen at Rs752.

Subsequent to breaking the long term descending trendline prices moved sharply higher giving a spike up to Rs2,638 last week. Prices witnessed a reasonable dose of downside correction and took support at Rs2,515. Closing below the key support of Rs2,560 indicates follow through weakness for the short run. A test of Rs2,490-2,480 cannot be ruled after which prices should gradually start moving higher in the medium term.

Mustard seed futures extended the gaining streak with high volatility last week and swiftly corrected lower. Prices have taken intermediate support at Rs3,710 and is exhibited mixed tone. Key support zone is identified at Rs 3,700-3,665, a test of which cannot be ruled out. As RSI is still in overbought territory, prices should ease before embarking on the next trend. Rs3,805 acts as a god resistance for the prices to stage new peaks.

Courtesy : India Infoline

MCX Kapas 30 April 2012 contract was trading at Rs 761 , up Rs. 29.3 . What's your view on it?

Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/commoditytrends/Edible-Oil-market-scenario-10619.html

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