CORALVILLE, Iowa -- The 'First in the Nation' Iowa Caucus is just a week away. According to the Republican Party of Iowa , an estimated 120,000 people will be attending the Iowa Caucuses to cast their votes in 1,774 precincts across Iowa on January 3.
As the Iowa Caucus campaign deadline looms, which candidates are trending up and who is trending down? A look at polling data over the last three months tells the story.
Trending Up: In a review of Real Clear Politics data - which averages out numerous polls - Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are all trending up going into January. Here's a breakdown, looking at peak polling, then taking snapshots of October 19, November 19, December 19 and data since:
Michele Bachmann peaked in her August win at the Iowa Straw Poll , polling at that time at 27 percent. After making some mistakes on the campaign trail, she tripped to 10 percent in October, and continued to fall even further in November to 6.5 percent. She has since rebounded a bit and is currently polling at 8.7 percent. To compare current December polling to November polling, Bachmann is at a +2.2 percent.
Despite snubbing Iowa and putting all his campaign eggs in the New Hampshire basket, Jon Huntsman is surprisingly trending up in the Hawkeye state. He was polling at just 1 percent in October, at 1.7 percent in November and is now up to 4 percent in December. That gives Huntsman a +2.3 percent rise in over last month.
Rick Perry announced his run for the presidency in August, taking the air out of Michelle Bachmann's balloon. He peaked in early October polling at 25 percent. As a result of poor debate performances, he tanked to 8.7 in late October and even lower to 6.8 percent in November. He's been on the rise in December, now polling at 12 percent. The bump is attributed to better debate performances as of late and Herman Cain's exit. Rick Perry has enjoyed the best upward trend of all candidates over the previous month's polling at +5.5 percent .
Rick Santorum has campaigned in every county of the state of Iowa. He has spent more time and shaken more hands than any other GOP candidate. He has quietly put together an impressive list of endorsements. His grassroots campaign and organization is arguably the best in the state at this point. He was polling at 4 percent in October, dipped to 3.8 percent in November, but his campaign seems to be building up a head of steam with a December number of 7.7 percent. That gives Santorum a trend of +3.7 percent .
Trending Down: All three of the following candidates have enjoyed front-runner status, all three are in polling decline.
Considered the best debater of the GOP field, Newt Gingrich rode that distinction like a rocket to front-runner status. He was polling at 8.3 percent in October, shooting up to 19.2 percent in November and to a peak of 31 percent as late as December 11. But with that notoriety came a closer review of his record and the Ron Paul and Mitt Romney anti-Gingrich negative ads . He's now polling at 14.7 percent. To compare current December polling to November polling, Gingrich is at a -4.5 percent in a downward trend. If you were to uniquely compare current polling to his December 11 peak of 31 percent, it's a drop of 16.3 percent. There's no question that the ads have been effective in bringing Newt down.
Ron Paul can be best described as a Libertarian favorite. In October, likely Iowa caucus participants were giving him 10.7 percent support. In November he polled at 12.5 percent, and then his anti-Gingrich TV ads started airing in December. That propelled Paul to 23.8 percent in polling but it was a peak ending December 24. News stories about Ron Paul newsletters from the 1990's containing alleged racist content have since surfaced. His Real Clear Politics polling average is now at 22.3 percent going into January. His downward trend is - 1.5 percent .
The campaign of Mitt Romney has been perhaps the steadiest of any, Romney always seems to poll at or near the neighborhood of 20 percent. He was polling at 22 percent in October, peaked at 22.4 percent in early November but lost some ground to Herman Cain later that month. His anti-Gingrich ads have helped bring Newt down, but they may also be hurting Romney to some extent because he is trending down going into the Iowa Caucuses. Comparing current December polling to his peak of 22.4 percent in November, Romney has a downward trend of -1.4 percent.
The political pundits are all predicting either a Ron Paul or Mitt Romney win in Iowa, but in looking at the trends, an upset win may be on the horizon.
Mike Thayer is Eastern Iowa's most vocal conservative, offering the Heartland perspective. Providing news analysis and a unique take on the issues of the day, Mike is Sick Of Spin!
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